A closely followed crypto strategist is weighing in on the likelihood of a significant downside move for Bitcoin (BTC) as the king crypto remains above $28,000.

Pseudonymous analyst Credible Crypto tells his 346,700 followers on the social media platform X that it seems unlikely that BTC would dip to $20,000 based on the current amount of open interest (OI), the total number of active derivative contracts held by traders.

“So why is seeing $20,000 or below on BTC here so improbable?

If we take the below chart and look at the data we have we can see that aggregate OI at around $6 billion has proved to be a historical bottom (which has been steady for the last 12-plus months (marked by peak fear/panic at FTX collapse bottom) and around $11 billion has been a local top.

Our last major flush that we had in August wiped out nearly $3 billion in OI (from $11 billion down to under $8 billion) but still failed to break our last major low at $24,800. We now trade at nearly the same price as when that flush triggered, however, aggregate OI is now down from nearly $11 billion at the time of our flush in August to only $8.5 billion at this time.

Meaning we are now in the same spot we were before the flush to $25,000 but there are now about 50% less liquidation-prone levered positions in the system versus what there was in August.”

He also says that it is unlikely BTC would dip below $24,800 for similar reasons.

“Even betting on a break of $24,800 is betting against the odds as you would be looking for a move down of greater magnitude than the flush in August with half as much ammo (liquidation susceptible leveraged positions) available to cause that flush.”

BTC is worth $28,698 at time of writing.

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